WINNER$ – NFL WEEK 12 (Thanksgiving Special$)
What a weird week, the picks we gave were spot on, but the late line movement sunk us. When we gave the Patriots pick the line was 13.5, it ended up closing around 10 and of course New England won 30-17, thus losing our pick by a half-point. The Giants line closed around 6, and some books had 5.5. When we made our pick on Friday it was at 7, so we’ll take the loss as Big Blue prevailed 22-16, which would have been a push for us in most places.
This is a lesson to all the newbies out there. Just because I’m giving you a pick on Friday doesn’t mean you have to make it on Friday. Watch the movement throughout the weekend, if you see the line going the other way then make the play immediately, if it starts to inch towards the other side, maybe wait til Sunday to see if you can get a better number. Remember, it’s a number games.
The Packers/Redskins shootout saved us from total annihilation, despite the losing week, still above .500 for the season, which is always the goal.
As for this week, I’ve decided to give you an extra helping of picks for the Thanksgiving holiday. I’ll make selections for all 3 games this Thursday, plus the Jets and Giants games for Sunday. Enjoy and have a good turkey day!
Here are the numbers…
Week 8 Recap:
Giants -7 (Loss)
Patriots -13.5 (Loss)
Packers/Redskins Over 50 (Win)
Week 7 Record: 1-2
2016 Season Record: 8-7
Week 10 NFL WINNER$:
VIKINGS +2.5 vs. Lions
Just 17 days ago, the Lions broke the Vikings heart in overtime, coming back to beat Minnesota in what was one of the most exciting games of the 2016 season thus far. I think the Vikes have regained their form a bit after a brief hiccup in the middle of the season. I’ll take Mike Zimmer’s bunch in a tight game to be better prepared on a short week.
Redskins at Cowboys UNDER 51
This might be my safest pick of the week, games between these two rivals are always close, and the Cowboys will be running the ball relentlessly, which means the clock will stay moving. I also think this total is inflated a bit because of the barrage of points Washington scored on Sunday night in primetime against the Packers. That will not happen this week.
STEELERS -7.5 at Colts
This would have been a tough game for the Colts to win even if Andrew Luck was playing, now that he isn’t, there is no way we can back Indy in this matchup.
BROWNS +7.5 vs. Giants
This game just oozes TRAP to me. The Giants have never faced an 0-11 team in the history of their franchise. The last time Big Blue went to Cleveland in 2008, they were 5-0 and the defending Super Bowl champions but got pounded 35-14. I don’t think that scoreline will happen this time around, but this is a hungry Browns team that is sick of getting embarrassed every week. For some reason or another, these are the types of games Eli can struggle with, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland keeps it close.
PATRIOTS -7 at Jets
You can’t make this number big enough in my opinion. The Jets are a lost team putting Ryan Fitzpatrick back into the starting spot under center. It shows that the team cares more about saving face in 2016 then looking towards the future and seeing what you have in Bryce Petty. Gangreen is an auto-fade the rest of the season.
Suicide Pick of the Week:
STEELERS over Colts
If you didn’t use them last week against the Browns, this would be a good spot for the Steelers. You can use the Bills over the Jags at home too. I would try to avoid the Giants if you can.