Week 3 NFL Recap: We Know Nothing
Added by Rory McQueen on September 24, 2013.
Next week I’ve decided to let a blind, deaf child from India do my picks. Yes I know what you are saying, do they even know about the point spreads in India? Do Indians realize the difference between dome teams and road teams? Can an Indian kid fully grasp the pistol offense and cover 2 defense?
Those really aren’t the issues, nor are him/her being deaf and blind issues. The issue is in three weeks I went from thinking I actually knew how to gamble on football to now believing a deaf, blind Indian kid could do better than I can in picking winners.
I started the season with such hope, not a hope based on the belief that I had a full proof way to wager and win. No one has that skill, well unless you can see into the future or own the sports almanac Michael j Fox brings back from Back to The Future 2. No I had hope because after watching every game last year, studying this offseason and using the eye ball test, I foolishly believed I had finally gained an edge.
The laughter you hear is the bookies and Vegas professionals laughing, cause in football gambling, the edge goes to two people, the house and the person who doesn’t bet. There is no edge because each week shit happens that no one could predict.
Some games jump off the page, like the Bears versus the Steelers. Watching the Bears play the first two weeks and then seeing the Steelers play it looked like a matchup between a major and minor league team. I can brag about this game, sell myself up because this was one game I didn’t need the blind, deaf Indian to help me win. Yet even this game almost came down to a back door cover and loss.
Another game that jumped off the page was the Vikings versus the Browns. The Browns who traded their starting running back, promoted their 3rd string QB and are coached on offense by Al Gore looked like a dead team walking. You know what the cure for any team that looks ready to quit is, PLAY AGAINST CHRISTIAN PONDER. I know I had a rule about never betting on him and for breaking my rule I was punished by the gambling lords of karma.
I broke another rule by betting on the Lions, but this time I was rewarded with a nail biting victory. The thing I learned from this game is the Lions are still not ready for primetime, but Washington isn’t ready for shit. They can’t play defense, their qb looks scared to run, their coach is about ten years too old to relate to players and they also have the most racist nickname in sport.
All this brings me to my new rule, rule 31, never bet on a team that uses racist nicknames because in the end the karma of 500 million slaughtered Native Americans will come back to haunt you ask RG 3 and his knee.
The Jets beating the Bills, I have no answers for that, and since that loss still haunts me days later let’s move past it. Needless to say my rule about betting on rookie QB’s after they have emotional wins is still intact, I just need to listen to myself. In fact I don’t need a blind, deaf Indian, I just need to actually listen to my rules.
The league has two great teams, the Broncos and Seahawks. One shit team in the Jags. Everyone else, I couldn’t even try to rate them in order. This league has more parity they any year I’ve seen, and my vaunted eye ball test is failing me week in and week out.
Last week I told you the difference between a sharp and the public, well this year the sharps are being beaten as badly as the public, worse maybe. It’s a good thing New Jersey decided not to have sports gambling in their casinos, what would they do with the extra billion dollars they could rake in letting smucks like me pretend we know what we are doing?
I’ll never get how a state allows a casino to let card games and craps, but looks at sports gambling as being evil. That’s an issue for another day, but the lesson from this week is don’t over think things, don’t use records against the spreads or any other bullshit mumbo jumbo you hear on TV. The only way we are going to turn this year around, without getting the almanac from Back to The Future, is by picking against teams. Don’t bet the best teams, bet against the worst, and as the weeks go by the weak teams will start to show themselves more.
Until then, good luck and may the lords of gambling shine down upon us all
RECORD FOR WEEK
RECORD FOR YEAR
Keep the faith.