NFL Week 3: Sharps, The Public, and How to Keep On Keeping On
Added by Rory McQueen on September 21, 2013.
Dylan has a line in Tangled Up in Blue where he says “We always felt the same we just saw it from a different point of view.” He was of course talking about relationships and love, but that line can also be applied to gambling, because what separates a sharp bettor from the public bettor is the point of view they take. Everyone sees the same game, gets the same point spread, but what makes someone a sharp instead of a normal public bettor is the view they take.
A sharp is a professional, a man who looks for the slightest of edges to make his bet. A sharp doesn’t go along with the story of the week or the obvious factors that make up a game. A sharp is disciplined, like an elite sniper, waiting for the right moment to make his kill. A half point might mean nothing to most bettors, but to a sharp, that half point is the difference between betting and walking away. The public bettor goes along with the trend, they bet based on what they hear on the radio or see on ESPN. The points don’t mean as much to them as the talent level. The public bets good teams and lays the points because if you don’t know much about the sport you always bet the favorite, it’s natural.
Sharps are like sharks, circling the sports book, watching the rest of the guppies place their bets. They watch this week as the public loads up on Seattle, and they wait. 19.5, 20, 20.5, the spread between the Seahawks and Jags keeps rising because the public knows that Seattle might be the best team and that the Jags might be the worst team, so three touchdowns seems like nothing when you are getting the best against the worst. A sharp smiles at this thinking, a sharp factors in that Seattle played a late and emotionally draining game last week, a sharp know that one muffed punt, one interception or bullshit touchdown and the Jags are now up 4 touchdowns, so a sharp waits til the last possible moment, allowing the public to load up on Seattle, raising the spread higher and higher til they see the red in the water and attack.
The eyeball test tells you to bet Seattle and not look back. Seattle and Denver are the class of the league and the Jags, well I’m pretty sure Nick Saban and his boys in Bama could give them a tough game, but this is the week we break some of our betting rules. For what good is a rule if you can’t break it.
RULE 1…Never bet on Detroit because they are undisciplined and in the end will do something stupid to cost them the game.
DETROIT PLUS 2 VS WASHINGTON
If the Lions were playing pretty much any team in the league I would load up against them and wait for them to blow it in the end, like they did versus Zona last week. The problem is Washington has a defense that has one glaring deviancy, THEY CAN’T STOP ANY BODY. Some teams can’t stop the run, others the pass, Washington’s defense best defender is the weather. The only way they will be able to slow Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford is if a rainstorm drenches the field and turns the game into a mud ball. I’d say they should start praying for a rain dance, but since their team nickname is quite insulting to the American Indian population, I’d say the chances of a rain dance working is nonexistent.
RULE 2…..NEVER BET ON CHRISTIAN PONDER
VIKINGS LAYING 5.5 TO BROWNS
Never ever bet on Christian Ponder. The man can land hot wives, hand the ball of to Adrian Peterson like a master, but when it comes to throwing the ball down field, well put it this way. What do Ponder, Tim Teabow and myself have in common? Neither of us can throw the ball deep. Yet here we are betting the Vikings, why? Cause of rule 3, which is when your team trades its best offensive player and promotes its third string qb to the starting job things are bad. Also since AL GORE is the man in charge of leading the now running back less 3rd string starting offense things are bad. When this season ends and Al is back promoting global warming and the Browns have a new Qb and coordinator we can think about betting on them, til then, bet against Al and you will make a lot of money.
RULE 11……NEVER BET A WEST COAST TEAM TRAVELING EAST N PLAYING EARLY
SAN DIEGO PLUS 3 FROM TITANS
Last week San Diego destroyed this rule by beating The Eagles. The problem of course is the more the eyeball test sees the Eagles play, the more convinced I become that they might actually suck, not Redskins suck and god not Jags suck but suck neverless. The Bolts barely lost to the Texans in week one, came east and won last week and now must battle Jake Locker and the Titans. The Titans are one of the few teams I can’t get a grasp on yet. Beating the Steelers in week one should count for nothing, since the Steelers are showing how bad they are week in and week out, and last week’s battle with the Texans showed they got some heart and grit the problem is do they have the talent? The Chargers, freed from the shackles of Al Gore could prove to be a playoff team this year. One thing for sure, the winner of this game jumps a level in the eye ball test.
RULE 13 ROOKIE QBS STRUGGLE AFTER EMOTIONAL LAST MINUTE WINS
BILLS PLUS 2.5 VS JETS
EJ Manuel experienced the highlight of his short career last week, with a last second td. Geno Smith experiences his highlight in week one when a Tampa Bay Buc player hit him late allowing the Jets to move into field goal range and win. Notice the difference, one rookie qb led his team down the field and using his skills won, the other got lucky that the team he played against is basically an undisciplined horde. Yet when in doubt we can always remember this , THE JETS ARE THE JETS, and save for a penalty in Tampa and some shitty weather in New England they would be 0 and 2 with no hope. This early in the season it’s hope that drives the teams that lack players, hope they can win on any given Sunday. Problem is hope sooner or later runs out, and this week the Jets become as Dennis Green would say they become, “WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE.”
RULE 19 NEVER BET AGAINST A GOOD COACH WHO TEAM NEEDS A WIN
BEARS LAYING 2.5 STEELERS
Mike Tomlin is one of the few great coaches in the league, and with his team winless you know he is pulling every trick and skill out of his book to win this week. Must win games usually don’t happen in the 3rd week, but for the Steelers, this is a must win game, and yet I still am picking the Bears and loving it. As good a coach as Tomlin is, he can’t play offensive line, blitz, or stop Brandon Marshall, and those three keys will be what makes the Bears 3 and 0. The Steelers are a great organization, but even thr Rooneys can’t stop the worst enemy a football team can face, AGE. The Steelers got old right before our eyes, and sadly the only way to get young again is to get your ass kicked week in and week out and use the draft to build. That being said I’d still rather have Big Ben and his way with the ladies as my qb then Jay Cutler and his reality star wife.
ON THE YEAR
So if you bet the opposite of all my picks you’d be having a pretty good season, better than me at least.