NFL Week 1 Betting….No One Here Gets Out Alive
Added by Rory McQueen on September 9, 2013.
Betting on the NFL is tough. Professional gamblers at their best have a .650 average, maybe a few even have .700, but that means that most guys who consider themselves professionals go 6 out of 10 each week. The difference between being profitable and being a degenerate who loses is one game, one game separating you from 5 out of 10 instead of the profitable 6 out of 10.
I mention this because as hard as it is to bet on football during the regular season, betting on the NFL during the first month of the season is exponentially harder. With week 1 being the most difficult week all season to bet on. If a gambler was smart, and when I say gambler I mean ME, so if I was smart I’d watch the first few weeks and bet nothing, saving my money for the rest of the season when I know more. Of course being smart isn’t what keeps me from not betting, the juice from the action is so strong it disables most of my rationally thinking and is replaced by a giddy 13 year old as the music and countdown to the Red Zone begin.
The worst part is that the excitement that pulsates through your body as Scott Hanson begins the Red Zone quickly fades and is replaced with anger as you watch the Steelers season actually die during the first half. The anger is compounded when the Jets, the goddam sad sack of shit that is the Jets, upset Tampa Bay. Note to Tampa, the Jets suck and they beat you, so you really suck. Also second note, Mark Sanchez will never start another game for the Jets. In fact if I could I’d bet that Tim Tebow starts a game in the NFL before Mark does, because after watching Jacksonville put up a 2 yesterday I see no other scenario where fans pay money to go to the stadium and watch this team play if Tim T is not behind center.
Betting against the Jags was one of my few bright spots yesterday. The rest of the day was a massacre, but I take heart knowing I am not the only one who gets butchered in week one. Vegas makes a ton of money on NFL betting (that isn’t much of a news flash), and September is the month they make the most money doing it. In fact September is more profitable for the hotels then October and November are combined. In September you bet based on what you remember from last year and what you decided during preseason, both of those factors are useless.
The thing that counts the most, the formula or secret I use to bet the rest of the season is called the eyeball test. It means after watching 7 hours of football on Sunday my brain has begun to compile files on every team. Their strengths, weaknesses, whatever nugget of information I think will matter I file away. Week 2 won’t be much better then week 1, but the hope is by week 5 I have seen enough to fill the files on each team and make my bets based on what the eyeball test has helped me deduce.
SOME EYEBALL TEST REACTIONS WEEK ONE
1. Christian Ponder is awful and so the Vikings are going no where.
2. The Steelers are done, losing your center is the worst injury a team can have. Ben is so mad he might go out tonight, get drunk and allegedly sexually assault a woman.
3. The Patriots need Gronk so badly, because after seeing the receiving corp Brady had yesterday I almost felt sorry for him. Almost because at the end of the day win or lose, he gets to sleep with Giselle.
4. The Raiders are going to be in a few games this year with their new QB. Pryor can run, he might be able to throw and he knows how to negotiate for tattoos.
5. Their old QB Carson Palmer should keep the Cardinals in some games this year. He and Larry Fitzgerald have back door cover written all over them.
6. The Bears might actually be able to protect Cutler. If they can do that, play defense like they always do and keep Brandon Marshall healthy, this team could be a good bet all year.
7. The Bengals are never going to be great because they are the Bengals, but that being said, I love them next week laying 6.5 to the Steelers.
8. The Bengals can take pleasure knowing they are not the Cleveland Browns, who are god awful. Even Norv Turner can’t help their qb and offense. (NOTE: has anybody ever seen Al Gore and Norv Turner together? I think Al Gore is Norv, Al Gore helped Troy Aikman and Al Gore was a terrible head coach in San Diego and god awful as a head coach in Washington.)
9. There are a lot more teams that looked like crap then teams that looked like gold.
My best bet for week one plays tonight, Houston 5 over the Chargers. If I was you though, I’d bet the Bolts tonight for no other reason than because I picked the Texans and since yesterday my betting looked as awful as the Jaguars offense.
Safe betting kids.