Bronx Showdown: Yankees-O’s Preview and Predictions

Added by Elizabeth DiPietro on August 30, 2012.

Joe Girardi and Buck Showalter have their teams ready for a big series in the Bronx.

A meaningful Yankees-Orioles series in late August? What is it, 1997?

2012 has been the year of the pleasant surprise, with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Oakland—all of whom had losing records last year—making playoff runs.

The Orioles will come into New York after taking three out of four games from the White Sox, who swept the Yankees in Chicago last week. They are only three games behind the Yanks in the American League East, meaning an Orioles sweep this weekend (perish the thought!) would mean a tie for the top.

While the Orioles fan base is no doubt pleasantly surprised, the Yankees are not. They have had enough trouble staving off the Rays all season; the last thing they need is another division rival, even after Boston’s massive upheaval.

The Yankees are 25-21 against division rivals this season. That isn’t bad, but now that their lead is actually surmountable, and they are beginning a 22-game stretch against said rivals, they need to step it up.

That’s easier said than done, especially when key players like Mark Teixeira, Ivan Nova, and Alex Rodriguez won’t be available this weekend. However, if the Yankees are looking for consistency in the midst of adversity, they’re sending up the right guy in the series opener: Hiroki Kuroda.

Kuroda has been Mr. Dependable in his last several starts, although the Yankees haven’t always shown their gratitude in the form of run support. In his only career start against the O’s back in April, he earned a win while pitching seven innings of one-run ball. Most of the Orioles’ hitters have little history with Kuroda since he spent most of his career in the National League, so that may bode well for the Yanks. (As of Thursday, Friday’s starter for the Orioles was yet to be announced.)

 FRIDAY PREDICTION: YANKEES WIN

Saturday’s matchup is a bit hairier for the Yanks. They’ll pit Freddy Garcia against Wei-Yin Chen. Garcia is 6-8 with a 4.34 ERA in his last ten years against the O’s. Chen is 1-0 in his short history against the Yankees; he pitched well both times he faced them this season, but Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson both have homers off him. Still, given their lack of history against Chen and Garcia’s unfortunate history against the O’s, the Yanks would have to pull one out in order to win this one.

SATURDAY PREDICTION: ORIOLES WIN

Sunday is a much tougher call. The Yankees are sending up replacement starter extraordinaire David Phelps, and Baltimore’s starter has yet to be announced. Phelps is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts, but he has given the Yankees innings, averaging six over those starts. However, this one is going to come down to the bullpen, at least for the Yankees, since Phelps isn’t likely—or probably even allowed– to go the distance. According to ESPN.com, Baltimore’s bullpen is ranked fifth in the majors, with a 22-10 record and a 3.03 ERA. The Yankee bullpen, usually highly touted as one of the AL’s best, is hovering around twelfth (17-14, 3.43). It has been spotty as of late; in Wednesday’s game Derek Lowe, Clay Rapada, and Joba Chamberlain couldn’t keep the game within reach in the eighth and ninth innings (not to mention Lowe’s horrendous throwing error in Monday night’s extra-innings heartbreaker). However, in a gratuitous show of optimism…

SUNDAY PREDICTION: YANKEES WIN

Finally, in the last ten days…

WHO’S HOT FOR THE YANKEES: Nick Swisher (11-for-36, 2 HR), Derek Jeter (16-for-45, 4 HR, 12 R), Hiroki Kuroda (4-2, 2.72)

WHO’S NOT FOR THE YANKEES: Curtis Granderson (6-for-35, 10 K), Andruw Jones (5-for-32)

WHO’S HOT FOR THE ORIOLES: Nick Markakis (13-for-37, 8 RBI), Wilson Betemit (13-for-34)

WHO’S NOT FOR THE ORIOLES: Brian Roberts (5-for-37), Adam Jones (8-for-40, 12 K)