Johan Santana: To start the season or not start the season, that is the question

Added by Eddie Utley on February 16, 2012.

Johan Santana is an unknown as he makes his way back from a pretty serious injury. But for a guy like him who is a workout monster; you would think he’d be the one to finally break through the capsule surgery jinx. A few before him had the surgery but never recovered, like, Mark Prior and Chris Young who the Mets are flirting with again.

Mark Prior pretty much was done after surgery but he still tries. Chris Young has had success but limited since he always ends up back on the DL. He looks good every time he comes off the DL but he can never stay on the field for a full season. Looking at his timetables, it looks like Young keeps coming back too early. This is a surgery where you should be out around 1-1 ½ years and sometimes even more because if you stress the arm too early then you might have a setback. Young had surgery again and looks to be ready sometime around May or June, but who knows.

A recent success story might be Chien Ming Wang. He’s not 100% of what he was but he has come the closest without a relapse and he was out around the same time Johan has been out.

Johan Santana has been out about 17 months now which will bring him to about 19 months by the time the season starts. Can you expect a full 33-35 starts? Probably not, but the Mets would be happy with 25. He hasn’t pitched a full 200 inning season in 2-3 years.

The Mets could have brought him back last year but they didn’t want to take that risk. Especially since if he does well, he will probably be trade bait. Can’t risk their trade bait.

I expect Santana to last the whole season if his shoulder isn’t an issue. Most think he won’t even start the season in the majors so I guess we’ll see what happens.